March 22, 2010

Box Office Update 3/19-3/21: Alice in Wonderland Keeps the Magic Alive

Alice in Wonderland did it again. While I came away rather lukewarm and underwhelmed, Burton's pseudo-sequel has certainly struck a chord with audiences. Its third weekend sees it steaming towards the triple century mark and become the first film of 2010 to reach that mark, not to mention it was also the first to pass the $200 million mark. The fantasy is now officially Tim Burton's highest grossing film, overtaking Batman's (1989) $251 million. I wonder how much more strength it has in it. I do not see an Avatar-like run in it, but it should clear $300 million pretty easily and will probably end up topping the $350 mark.

The next three spaces are held by the week's new wide releases, although they are not in the order I expected. Coming in second place is the kid-friendly comedy Diary of a Wimpy Kid. This is a movie I was always in the wrong place and never say any advertising for. I must not watch enough children's programming and I may have to adjust my intake. I kid, I kid. Seriously, I never saw anything on this, but it seems to be getting generally positive buzz and the kids who have read the books seem to have enjoyed it.

Coming in right behind it with $21 million is the Jennifer Aniston/Gerard Butler snooze-fest, err, romantic comedy The Bounty Hunter in third place. I have a good feeling this is going to fade pretty fast as the mediocre at best word of mouth filters out. The film has no laughs, no story, no chemistry, and no ambition.

Taking  a steep drop to fourth place is the third of our wide releases is Repo Men. I thought for sure this would have a stronger opening. I at least hoped it would open similar to Daybreakers ($15 million). I can only guess that people either were not as interested in it as I was, or drew similarities to the vampire film. Whatever the case, I recommend you check this body part repossession film. Sure, it has its flaws, but it is certainly entertaining and even has an homage to Oldboy!

The rest of the list is littered with the also-rans looking to pick up some scraps on what felt like a pretty slow weekend. Avatar is still holding the fort down on its historic run. Also on the positive side of the coin, She's Out of League had a good second week out, which is heartening as I have an affection for it and like to see it achieve a little success. On the other side of the coin both Green Zone and Remember Me both suffered near 60% dips in their second weekends. Both have their positive points, but if I were to recommend one, it would have to be Green Zone.

Next week will see Hot Tub Time Machine, which I am more and more stoked to see with the buzz that has been building around it I hope it is as good as the tweeting seems to indicate! Also opening is How to Train Your Dragon 3D, a movie I had little hope for with the first trailer, but subsequent trailers have changed my outlook and I am looking forward to it.

Three movies dropped off the list this week: Brooklyn's Finest (12), The Crazies (13), and Cop Out (14).

This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
11Alice in Wonderland (2010)$34,500,000 $265,800,000 3
2NDiary of a Wimpy Kid$21,800,000 $21,800,000 1
3NThe Bounty Hunter$21,000,000 $21,000,000 1
4NRepo Men$6,151,000 $6,151,000 1
53She's Out of My League$6,015,000 $19,954,000 2
62Green Zone$5,963,000 $24,702,000 2
74Shutter Island$4,755,000 $115,770,000 5
87Avatar$4,000,000 $736,881,000 14
96Our Family Wedding$3,800,000 $13,668,000 2
105Remember Me$3,300,000 $13,900,000 2

Box Office Predictions Recap
A lot of flip-flopping this week. The biggest surprise was Diary of a Wimpy Kid which opened pretty robustly to take the number 2 spot. I knew I might have underestmated it when I was told how well it was performing at the local cineplex. I know that is merely anecdotal evidence but sometimes that pays off. Alice still performed well and came in under but close to my expectation. I guess my biggest disappointment would be my overestimation og Repo Men, it strikes me as a film that would have a strong opening weekend.

Here is how the field matched up:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Alice in Wonderland (2010)$34,500,000 $36 million
32The Bounty Hunter$21,000,000 $22 million
43Repo Men$6,151,000 $15 million
24Diary of a Wimpy Kid$21,800,000 $13.5 million
65Green Zone$5,963,000 $7 million
56She's Out of My League$6,015,000 $5.5 million
77Shutter Island$4,755,000 $5 million
88Avatar$4,000,000 $4.5 million
109Remember Me$3,800,000 $4 million
910Our Family Wedding$3,300,000 $3.5 million

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